Analysis of import volume and price of waste paper pulp

Since China announced the implementation of trade policies to restrict waste paper imports in 2017, the international waste paper market trade pattern has undergone major changes. As the world's largest importer of waste paper, my country's net import volume of waste paper has dropped sharply from 28.4962 million tons in 2016 to 6.8913 million tons in 2020. On November 25, 2020, the "Announcement on the Comprehensive Prohibition of Importing Solid Waste" stated that it is prohibited to import solid waste in any way. The announcement will take effect on January 1, 2021, and waste paper is basically prohibited from entering the country.

In order to solve the problems of shortage of high-quality raw materials and rising production costs, large-scale paper mills such as Nine Dragons and Lee & Man have set up in North America, Northern Europe, Southeast Asia and other places, and use overseas recycled fiber pulp mills to import waste paper into recycled fiber pulp in overseas pulp mills.

According to customs statistics, from January 2021 to date, the import volume of waste pulp has gradually increased, from 2.44 million tons in 2021 to 2.88 million tons in 2022, and then to 4.47 million tons in 2023. As of now, the import volume of waste pulp in the first half of 2024 is 2.35 million tons, and the annual import volume is expected to reach about 4.7 million tons.

In terms of import prices, affected by the solid waste import policy, the average import price was US$333/ton in January 2021, and then the price basically showed an upward trend, reaching a high of US$480/ton in October 2021, an increase of 44%, and then the price fluctuated at a stable high level.

With the increase in the domestic waste paper recycling rate and the supply and demand relationship, the international market trade policy and exchange rate fluctuations and other factors, the price has been falling since the average price of US$457/ton in August 2022. In August 2023, the price fell to US$253/ton. Since then, the paper price has been stable and strong, with limited overall fluctuations. The latest data shows that in June 2024, my country's pulp imports were 2.61 million tons, of which waste paper pulp imports were 320,000 tons, accounting for about 12.26%, and the average import price was US$282/ton