Conclusion and Outlook for 2022

In 2021, pulp prices will rise and fall, and will remain basically the same throughout the year. The sharp rise in the first quarter and the decline in the third quarter are still dominated by finished paper. The production capacity of finished paper is on the rise, which makes it difficult for paper mills to maintain a high level of profit for a long time, and then shuts down production and maintenance after the profit drops sharply, resulting in a decline in pulp demand.

In 2022, there will be no major increase in the global supply of softwood pulp. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the shipments of major exporting countries will be affected by external factors, and the duration is unknown. However, in 2021, the softwood pulp sent by overseas manufacturers to China will be greatly reduced. The recovery in the spread is expected to pick up imports in 2022. After the domestic policy turns to steady growth, both domestic demand and investment are expected to stabilize, and optional consumption will improve after the epidemic weakens. Especially in the first half of the year, economic activities will usher in a recovery. There is an expectation for improvement in the demand for finished paper, but the education industry double reduction" Weakening policies and real estate trends will make it difficult for the total demand for finished paper to increase significantly. In addition, the continuous increase in paper production capacity will put pressure on the profit of paper mills, and accordingly restrict the recovery of paper mills’ operating rate and pulp demand.

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